Swiss Re on emerging risk insights

Swiss Re’s SONAR 2025: New emerging risk insights report identifies new or changed risks that could impact on insurers today and in the future. The report highlights a range of emerging risks, with those most relevant to the life and health insurance sector being: declining consumer trust in institutions and the insurance industry; elevated levels of excess mortality; aging populations; extreme heat events; fungi-adaptations; harm caused by plastics; new technologies in healthcare delivery; rising consumption of ultra-processed foods; workforce gaps and skillset shortages. It’s an interesting read - we’ve picked out some things we think are particularly relevant to the New Zealand market.

• With aging populations, fewer and later family formations could lead to less events (such as the birth of a child) that typically spur life insurance purchases.

• While NZ is not subject to such extremes of temperature as in other parts of the world, a recent study estimated that 500 children under five are hospitalised for heat-related reasons each year in NZ . Currently 14 heat-related deaths occur in Auckland’s over-65 population annually – with climate change increasing the number of days exceeding 25C, we can expect the number of people dying from heat-related deaths to increase correspondingly.

• With fungi adapting to warmer temperatures and the overuse of fungicides leading to more multi-drug-resistant fungal pathogens, there could be an increase in fungal infections and limited medical treatment options for those with fungal infections.

• The potential health effects from micro- and nano-plastics and their additives are still being studied, but there is growing research on the negative impacts of plastics on human health.

• Swiss Re highlight that innovations like GLP-1 weight-loss medications and the increasing uptake of these drugs should help reduce mortality in the future. Semaglutide (Wegovy/Ozempic) was approved for weight-loss use in New Zealand by Medsafe last month, though it is not Pharmac-funded.

• The increasing availability and variety of AI and virtual health services should lead to healthier populations over time, by enabling early detection and preventative interventions. Personalised health monitoring and nudges towards healthier behaviour (a la AIA’s vitality product) will potentially reduce claim frequencies and lead to longer healthspans. Conversely, the digitalisation of medical records and other previously private health information, comes with greater data security and privacy risks.

• Research has shown associations between high consumption of ultra-processed foods and elevated health risks, including obesity, type-2 diabetes, depression, cardiovascular disease and cancer.

• An aging workforce will contribute to labour and skillset shortages in the healthcare field, which could lead to delays in medical treatment, under-diagnosis and sub-standard levels of care – leading to an increase in morbidity and mortality. Healthcare worker shortages have been in the news regularly in NZ and The Royal NZ College of General Practitioner’s 2022 workforce survey found 64% of specialist GP’s were intending to retire by 2032.

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KiwiSaver changes are now in place

Changes to KiwiSaver have come into effect from 1 July. These changes are now live on Kiwimonster, and will be reflected in all the numbers you crunch.

Government contribution has been halved. Previously, for every $1 a KiwiSaver member contributes (up to a maximum of $1046.86) in a year, the Government put in 50c. The government contribution rate has now been halved to 25c for every $1 contributed, up to a maximum of $260.72 annually.

• High income earners no longer qualify for Government contribution. The Government contribution has been removed for KiwiSaver members with a taxable income over $180,000 per annum.

• KiwiSaver eligibility extended to 16- and 17-year-olds. The Government contribution and employer matching is now available to 16- and 17-year-olds in the workforce.

From next year, default contribution rates increasing. The default KiwiSaver employee and employer contribution rate will be moving from 3% of salary and wages to 3.5% on 1 April 2026, then to 4% on 1 April 2028. Employees will be able to opt to contribute at a lower 3% rate and have that lower rate matched by their employer. Contributions will be reset to the default rate after 12 months, but employees can choose to reselect the lower rate again.

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Munich Re look at how insurers can develop prevention strategies

Munich Re’s Life Science Report 2025 has insights on global trends and risks that will shape the insurance industry over the next decade. We’ve written about their in-depth looks at AI in Healthcare and Improving Cancer Outcomes sections, and now we’re looking at their Prevention chapter. 

Prevention is all about intervening before a disease or condition occurs – trying to extend the health span of peoples’ lives and prevent claims from arising in the first place. 

In order to develop effective preventative strategies, insurers need a deep understanding of each of their clients’ unique characteristics, risk factors and health trends. Insurers should focus on areas where they’ll get the most bang for their buck, addressing lifestyle factors that contribute to the most significant preventable health risks and claims drivers – namely cardiovascular disease, cancer and mental health conditions. The key preventable causes for these are obesity, unhealthy diet, physical inactivity, smoking, excessive drinking and poor sleep patterns. Munich Re have a range of tables showing the impact of preventive measures on mortality, disability, critical illness and health care costs.

Munich Re categorise preventative health measures based on the stages of disease they are intended to prevent:

• Primordial prevention - preventing development of risk factors for the entire population

• Primary prevention - prevent onset of disease e.g. through lifestyle adjustments and medications

• Secondary prevention - early diagnosis (e.g. through screening programmes) and prompt treatment

• Tertiary prevention - manage existing disease to minimise complications and improve outcomes to prevent further morbidity and mortality

• Quaternary prevention - protect from medical interventions that are likely to cause more harm than good.

To be effective, targeted interventions need to address an individual’s unique needs. By using personalised risk profiling, digital risk scores and advanced analytics, insurers can tailor interventions to maximise impact. To be efficient, insurers need to be able to amplify their prevention efforts to reach a wide audience and use digital systems to automate processes and incorporate real-time feedback. One of the most effective means of prevention is improving health literacy, the ability to navigate health information and make informed decisions. Munich Re suggest that informing policyholders about prevention benefits, enhancing health literacy, making things easy and incentivising members will all help drive positive health outcomes.

As we’ve already seen starting to occur here in NZ, insurers are positioning themselves as active participants in the well-being of their policyholders (with AIA’s Vitality programme perhaps the most notable example of this). We’d love to hear from you instances where your clients health insurance has led to them taking proactive steps to improve their health.

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Munich Re look at improving Cancer outcomes

As part of Munich Re’s Life Science Report 2025, they have investigated the projected impact of advances in cancer treatment and research. These advances will change how cancers are defined, prevented, diagnosed and treated and are expected to significantly improve cancer mortality.

Cancer is the leading cause of death among policyholders for most insurers worldwide, as such it demands investigation. Much progress has been made in the past couple of decades to improve cancer mortality, through both reducing cancer risk factors (such as the dramatic downturn in tobacco use) and better diagnosis and treatment. Mortality improvement trends are expected to accelerate as our understanding of cancer genetics are combined with artificial intelligence (AI).

AI will be used to both improve cancer risk prevention and diagnostics. AI analysis of an individual’s personal information such as health data, family history, genetic and epigenetic profiles, microbiome, living environment and exposure history, sometimes called a statistical biopsy, will give a better understanding of risk for a wide range of cancers. This could potentially allow for a personalised approach to risks, behaviours, and identification of which strategies may be most effective in addressing these factors.

Being able to diagnose cancer more accurately, and at earlier stages, should improve cancer mortality. AI has already led to refinements in imaging studies, and in blood, urine and tissue samples. AI can also be used to analyse the tumour’s genetic pattern, other associated biomarkers and an individual’s risk profile to allow for better prognosis and management approach. AI’s ability to recognise patters not apparent to humans will help with diagnostic tools such as imaging studies, pathologic specimen interpretation and photograph analysis.

More effective screening approaches will lead to earlier cancer diagnosis and improved cancer mortality. An important technology, ‘liquid biopsy’, is currently used to analyse fluids to look for markers indicating the presence of a cancer, typically used to detect residual cancer after treatment or recurrence. If a liquid biopsy test that can screen for multiple cancers in asymptomatic individuals could be brought to market at a price point where it is accessible to the masses, it would be a game changer. Though it would also raise concerns about over-diagnosis and surveillance bias, as some identified cancers may never post a significant mortality risk.

The combination of AI and genomic analysis of tumour cells and immune cells has led to the development of targeted treatments that exploit specific genetic patterns. These treatments are more precise and safer than chemotherapy, with the four key categories of therapies emerging being targeted monoclonal antibodies, immune checkpoint inhibitors, cancer vaccines and adoptive cell immunotherapy.

With potential changes in how cancers are classified, product definitions will need to be modified. Instead of being classified based on their tissue of origin, it’s expected new cancer tests will be able to categorise cancers based on their underlying genetic causes – potentially leading to thousands of cancer subtypes.

Where previously terminal cancers become able to be managed and instead turn into chronic disease, there may be implications for living benefits products. Reduced mortality should be favourable for life insurances businesses, though the costs of more sophisticated, individualised cancer treatments may have a negative cost impact on health insurance businesses. Munich Re predict that advances in diagnosis and changes in diagnostic criteria are going to increase cancer incidence rates in the short term, but may decrease critical illness rates if major advances in cancer prevention are realised.

AI will also have implications for underwriting. AI-based diagnosis is likely to be more accurate and predictive than current methods, with fewer false positive and false negative results, enabling risk to be better assessed. Better monitoring post-cancer treatment will mean recurrence risk can be more accurately assessed too.

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AIA release Claims Compass Report

AIA have released their second Claims Compass Report, covering data for the year ended 31 December 2024. AIA have over 797,000 Kiwi protected and accept 92% of all claims received.

In 2024, AIA paid out $829.6 million in claims, up $95 million on the previous year. Life accounted for 41% of all claims paid ($298.1 million), followed by Health ($167 million), Trauma ($139.5 million), Income Protection ($97.2 million) and Total Permanent Disablement ($23.9 million).

Life claims were up $34.6 million, Health claims were up $23.9 million and Trauma claims were up $22.4 million on the previous year. Increases in claims were put down to the combined impact of insurance levels increasing alongside inflation, more innovative treatment options with higher costs than established treatments, and growing demand for health services due to an aging population and growth in chronic diseases.

AIA NZ Chief Customer Officer, Maddie Sherlock said

“In New Zealand, we have observed increased rates of heart disease, cancer, diabetes, and poor mental health, brought about by worsening lifestyle factors such as diet and lack of exercise. These worsening public health trends lead to a higher demand for health services, which puts upward pressure on private health claims.”  

AIA have shone a spotlight on mental health. In 2024 $25.7 million was paid out towards mental health related claims, and $8.1 million for suicide claims. Mental health claims were highest for men aged 40 and 49 ($6.4 million), followed by men aged 50 – 59 (5.6 million). Sherlock said

“This big jump in claims for this age group reflects their life stage which is likely to be impacted by the weight of increased family, financial and professional responsibility and high demands upon their time.”

“This is the age where your overall health starts to be impacted by your nutrition, sleep and activity levels versus when you were younger. And your risk of lifestyle diseases increases. These changes can of course impact your confidence and overall mental wellbeing.”

The top AIA NZ mental health claims in 2024 were:

1. Depressive disorders 44%

2. Anxiety / panic disorders              14%

3. Post Traumatic Stress Disorder      4%

4. Chronic Fatigue Syndrome           3%

5. Chronic Pain Syndrome                2%

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Fidelity Life financial strength rating reaffirmed

Fidelity Life, New Zealand’s largest locally owned life insurer, had its A- (Excellent) financial strength rating affirmed by AM Best. The outlook for the rating is stable, and according to AM Best, reflects Fidelity Life’s ‘very strong’ balance sheet.

Fidelity Life Chief Financial Officer Simon Pennington said

“This A- rating from AM Best is a reassuring endorsement of our business's financial health and stability. As a life insurer, this independent assessment gives advisers confidence in partnering with us, and for customers, it ensures peace of mind in our ability to pay claims.”

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FSC release latest research report ‘Women and Finance in New Zealand’

The Financial Services Council (FSC) have released their ‘Insights and Trends: Women and finance in New Zealand’ 2025 report. With International Women’s Day being celebrated this month, the report aims to better understand how women and finances interact. Some of the key findings include:

• FSC research from December 2021 found that over 80% of female respondents considered their financial wellbeing as moderate to very low, with just under 64% of respondents reporting they worried about money at least monthly. By 2024, 70% of women were reporting worrying about money on a daily or weekly (in comparison, 51% of men reported worrying about money on a daily or weekly basis in 2024).

• Despite reported underconfidence, FSC research has found that women are more financially literate than men overall, with 66% of women answering at least 75% of financial trivia questions correct, compared to 57% of men.

• Women (61%) are more likely to be in debt than men (43%).

• Women are more likely to be working part-time, have full-time home duties or be unemployed (43%) than the equivalent for men (14%).

• 58% of women say they are not particularly financially prepared or not financially prepared at all for retirement.

Last Year, Te Ara Ahunga Ora Retirement Commission found that the retirement gap between men and women has not improved, remaining fixed at a 25% difference since 2023. FSC CEO Kirk Hope said

"The current KiwiSaver settings disadvantages those who take career breaks, disproportionately affecting women who pause their earnings to care for or start their families.

It’s encouraging to see the Government make steps to start to address this, with those receiving paid parental leave from July 2024 being able to choose to make KiwiSaver contributions, and Inland Revenue making employer contributions of 3%.”

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Report delves into implications for insurers from emerging medical trends

Munich Re’s latest Life Science Report delves into the emerging medical trends and risks and implications for life and health insurers. The report is split into five sections which analyses different topics: Artificial Intelligence in Healthcare (released); Improving Cancer Outcomes (released); Prevention (releasing 18 February); Obesity (releasing 4 March); and Climate Change (releasing 18 March).

Insurance Business Mag ran an article where Dr. Brad Heltemes, VP & medical director of R&D at Munich Re, discusses the Improving Cancer Outcomes chapter. In particular, Heltemes highlights how identification of various gene alterations the drive the development of a cancer can be significantly different between two cancers that appear to be alike in location and appearance, giving as one example “…the multiple different gene signatures seen with non-small cell lung cancers, each which responds to a different targeted treatment and each having a different prognosis.”

New diagnostic tests and innovative treatments are also leading to improving cancer outcomes, with many cancers that used to be terminal now being able to be managed as chronic diseases. With patients leading longer, healthier lives (which is great news!), longevity models and expected treatment costs need to be re-examined.

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What does a business version of the healthy futures report mean?

We took a look at Southern Cross’s business edition of the 2024 Healthy Futures Report, which focuses on employee health and wellbeing. There are clear links between wealth and health, as the old saying has it. Whether one causes the other and in which direction the arrow of causality points is unexplored. We think it’s probably more complicated than this simple pairing of factors, although if someone becomes wealthy, they often become healthier. Likewise, if someone has the misfortune to become chronically ill, they usually get poorer. But these two are probably joined by other factors which may also have some power to affect outcomes – like education while young, health while a child, and current environment.

What employers can do to help is limited – but is appreciated by staff. At Quality Product Research Limited we offer seven of the eleven key suggestions made (soon to be expanded to eight) – we like that we can do that – but people use or do not use them pretty much as they please.

Key takeaways for us from the survey results:

• 89% of respondents said it was important to them to work for a company that supports the health and wellbeing of their staff.

• 55% of respondents’ employers were doing well in supporting their employees.

• The top ten initiatives employers could invest in were wellbeing leave (36%), lunch or break room (29%), flu vaccinations (26%), healthy food options (25%), activities promoting good mental health (23%), workplace massage (23%), Employee Assistance Programme (22%), health assessments (21%), subsidised membership to off-site facilities (21%) and stress management programmes (20%).

• 88% of employees think having a good work-life balance is important, with a third considering taking steps to improve their work-life balance.

• Making use of flexible working hours (43%) and switching off from work when finished for the day (43%) were the most common means of managing work-life balance. Conversely, having a high work load (60%), financial pressures (40%) and not having flexible working hours (40%) were cited as most commonly as reasons for poor work-life balance.

• 51% of workplaces offer flexible working arrangements, down from 54% in 2022; 60% of employees make use of flexible working hours most weeks and an additional 26% utilise it sometimes.

• Only 45% of kiwis rate themselves as happy with their financial situation; 91% cite cost of living as one of their top concerns and 58% worry about not having enough money to support themselves or their families.

• 84% of New Zealanders are concerned about not having good, affordable access to healthcare, up 8% from 2022.

• Kiwis don’t feel they are getting enough sleep (60%) or exercise (62%).

• New Zealanders without health insurance were more likely to be less happy with their health, financial situation, mental wellbeing, fitness levels, weight of themselves and their children, exercised less on average and were more likely to be stressed.

Southern Cross highlight a series of initiatives workplaces could take to improve employee wellbeing, including:

• offering education on stress management and financial management;

• offering free fruit or healthy food in breakrooms;

• encouraging employees to make use of flexible working if it’s offered;

• offering health assessments;

• educating employees on the importance of flu vaccinations;

• offer opportunities for physical exercise, through work place team sports, sports day or subsidies for gyms or exercise equipment;

• encouraging employees to take their annual leave;

• training leaders to identify those at risk of burn-out;

• offering wellbeing leave;

• providing employee assistance programmes and educating employees on what it is and hot to use it;

• offering subsidised health insurance.

1,463 employees were surveyed for this report in March 2024.

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Committee recommends Contracts of Insurance Bill moves forward

New Zealand’s Finance and Expenditure Committee has recommended that the Contracts of Insurance Bill move forward. After reviewing the bill, the committee proposed several key amendments:

•  Insurers are allowed reasonable time to gather information when processing claims.

• That dishonesty be treated as a lack of reasonable care rather than outright fraud.

• That a power to create some regulation of the use of genetic tests in underwriting is included in the draft law.

Government officials anticipate the bill to be passed by the end of this year. Changes insurers will need to prepare for once the bill comes into force include reviewing existing contracts to ensure compliance with new consumer protection measures; preparing for potential regulations on the use of genetic data; and ensuring claims processing procedures meet the new ‘reasonable time’ requirements.

With regard to the power to regulate the use of genetic tests, the report states:

“We agree that this issue is important. Our view is that a cautionary approach to genetic testing is needed to avoid undue genetic discrimination. However, we also grappled with the question of how to address genetic testing in this bill. We considered the implications of different options, including a full legislative ban on “genetic discrimination”.

“Ultimately, we recommend inserting new regulation-making powers, in Part 3, new subpart 4A (clauses 86A, 86B, and 86C), that would enable the Governor-General, on a recommendation of the Minister, to prohibit or regulate the conduct of insurers in relation to genetic testing. Before recommending any regulations, we expect the Minister to conduct a full policy development and consultation process.”

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