Barack Obama is President
Contrasting Policies

Election Maths

If you didn't want to have anything to do with the election you were always going to struggle. Same here I'm afraid - but I'll get off the subject as soon as I can. Here's a section of the chart from the site www.elections.org.nz - and very good it is too. I have annotated it with the weighted score from the pre election polls (it's the figure in brackets next to the party name).

Party
Party
Votes
%
Votes
Electorate
Seats
List
Seats
Total
Seats
National Party (46.8%)
951,145
45.45
41
18
59
Labour Party (34.6%)
706,666
33.77
21
22
43
Green Party (8.1%)
134,622
6.43
0
8
8
ACT New Zealand (2.6%)
77,843
3.72
1
4
5
Mäori Party (2.4%)
46,894
2.24
5
0
5
Jim Anderton's Progressive (0.2%)
19,536
0.93
1
0
1
United Future (0.5%)
18,629
0.89
1
0
1
New Zealand First Party (3.3%)
88,072
4.21
0
0
0


So National got 1.5% fewer on the night than the polls suggested. Labour 1% lower. It's the greens that surprised - with 1.6% lower - out of a much lower figure. That's about 1 in 5 predicted to vote Green who didn't. Then NZ First who got almost an extra 1% - or put another way about 25% more than they expected. Act did a similar trick - even more so.

Three quick comments about proportionality. While I have little sympathy with NZ First, there's 88,000 voters who didn't get represented - they might look askance at the 46,000 Maori party voters who got five MPs at an average cost of about 9,000 votes. Pretty much every other seat cost about 18,000 votes - whichever party it was.

But what this says about financial services is - virtually nothing. So let's move on.


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