I spotted this comment over at goodreturns:
"why would you think dealer groups have nothing to do with clients – they adversely affect client premiums – if not in the short-term then definitely in the long term. The obvious reason for this being providers having to pay more for advisers than would normally be expected."
Now logically, you might think this is so, there is a plausible causal mechanism: higher commission should be reflected in higher premiums.
But there is a serious problem with the thesis - a total lack of any supporting evidence.
As we have shown previously, with an analysis of premium rates offered by a variety of 'direct' and 'broker' offers, there is no correlation between the premium rates and the commission offered - while there are some very cheap direct offers, there are also some very expensive ones - just like the range for broker offers, from cheap to expensive. You can see that picture here:
Then there is a lot of time-series data to look at as well. You might expect that in the mythical pre-dealer group nirvana, when commission rates were lower that premium rates were lower too - but they weren't. And, yes, we are sure: we've got 9 years of commission rate history in our surveys, and premium rate data going back 8 years. In fact, life insurance premiums have trended down over the past ten years even while commissions have trended up.The situation is more complicated for income protection and trauma, but certainly no clear evidence links premium rates and commission - although the two are certainly connected.
How can this be?
Well, premium rates might be even lower were it not for dealer groups. But let's not rush too hastily to that conclusion. Life companies have got more efficient. Mortality has improved. Volume matters as well, and there are costs in accessing distribution. Dealer groups can reduce that cost for some companies, and so you cannot assume that overrides are all dead weight surcharge or rents.
Now, as it happens, I suspect that commission rates may fall. However, distribution costs will not, the pressure is entirely the other way. Exactly what this will do to the share a dealer takes is a good question, but I hope there will be a little less leaping to conclusions and a little more examining the data. It's going to take some thought.