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FSC: Nineteenth Message

COVID-19 Deaths probably underestimated

Graphic detail, a data feature from The Economist, highlights an excess of deaths in line with the COVID-19 crisis, but not attributed to COVID-19. The implication is that if excess deaths rise and fall in high correlation with recorded COVID-19 deaths, and the exceed expected mortality, they are probably COVID-19 deaths. It is only where actual deaths minus COVID-19 deaths are falling below the expected line that other effects are likely: either a real drop in non-COVID-19 deaths (such as arising from reduced accidents) or some predicted deaths being counted as COVID-19 due to the presence of COVID-19. 

Annotation 2020-04-24 094053

Do take a look at the whole article:


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