Swiss Re's paper offers a good global insight - thanks to Financial Advice New Zealand for picking up on this one. They predict a deep but relatively short recession in comparison to the global financial crisis. "Short" is a relative term, as in many markets worse affected by ours, that recession lasted years. They are worried about inflation due to the massive stimulus being applied to western economies.
When The Economist wrote this article about the importance of a hedge against sudden inflation (published in January, back when COVID-19 was barely known) I did not really think this was the biggest risk - quite the reverse. It now looks to be wise indeed.
Tony Alexander's articles provide a view laced with plenty of local data to help bring it all back home to our current situation. He's an optimist, but perhaps not as optimistic as Vittoria Shortt, ASB Bank CEO, who was reported in the NZ Herald as saying that the economy will be back up to about 80% of its capacity in level three - although when you scan her quoted statements in the article they are all more conservative than that.